The news on the economy has also been a bit better. A closely watched index of business activity, based on surveys of purchasing managers across the euro zone, has risen wow gold for a second month in a row. The German economy has stayed resilient despite troubles on the European Union’s southern rim. It grew by 3% in 2011, according to figures from the statistics office this week. Business confidence perked up in the last two months of the year on the gauge published by Ifo, a Munich research group. Unemployment fell in December to 6.8%, the lowest level since 1991.

Yet the figures have not been so perky as to suggest the euro-zone economy will avoid recession. German wow gold GDP probably shrank in the fourth quarter of 2011, says the statistics office. French GDP was flat, says its central bank. Add in grimmer figures from Italy, Spain and elsewhere, and euro-zone GDP may have fallen by some 0.3-0.4%. The bright start to the year might mean that the current quarter is no worse than the previous one, but much will depend on whether financial markets remain calm. With so much ahead that could go wrong, the chances of that are slim.

The worries begin with sovereign debt. Barclays Capital reckons that euro-zone governments must raise €218 billion in new bonds in the first quarter, of which €167 billion is needed to pay maturing debt. Some €300 billion of short-term bills wow gold must also be sold. Italy will be the largest single issuer: it has two chunks of debt due in the last weeks of January and February. The government is likely to pay a high price for its money: yields on ten-year bonds are close to 7%. A bigger concern is that investors might snub one of Italy’s bond auctions.